یکسال پسا طالبان؛ هیچ‌کس نمی‌داند که فردا چه می‌شود

توسط Ahmad Saedi

«دیدگاه» بیان‌گر نظریات صاحب‌نظران است و آماج‌نیوز در این مورد «پالیسی توازن» را دنبال می‌کند و از دیدگاه تمامی طرف‌ها استقبال و نشر می‌کند.

حکومت طالبان یک‌ ساله شد؛ اما تا هنوز نه مشروعیت ملی پیدا کرده‌اند و نه هم بین المللی، فقط در کشور ما فقر، ناتوانی و سردرگمی حاکم است. از امنیت که طالبان لاف می‌زدند برعکس آن مردم ما نه امنیت فزیکی دارند و نه امنیت روانی، هیچ‌کس نمی‌داند که فردا چه می‌شود.

یک سال پیش یک‌ هفته پیش از سقوط اوضاع در افغانستان بد به نظر می‌رسید؛ اما هیچ‌کس نمی‌دانست که بدترین وضعیت هنوز در راه است. تمام نیروهای امریکایی به تاز‌گی کشور را ترک کرده بودند. تعداد معدودی از نیروهای بین‌المللی باقی‌مانده نیز در حال خروج بودند. طالبان نیمی از ولایت‌های افغانستان را تحت کنترول داشتند و شهرهای بزرگ را تهدید می‌کردند؛ اما تعداد کمی حدس می‌زدند که تا ۱۱ سپتمبر ۲۰۲۱، طالبان کنترل بیش‌تری از قلمرو افغانستان را نسبت به ۱۱ سپتمبر ۲۰۰۱ در دست خواهند داشت.

از زمان تسلط طالبان، افغانستان در مسیر نزولی قرار گرفته است. اکثر افغان‌ها با یک بحران انسانی حاد روبه‌رو هستند. با وجود این‌که طالبان وعده داده‌اند که دختران جوان می‌توانند به مکتب بروند؛ اما هنوز این اتفاق نیفتاده است.
اختلافات داخلی در داخل رهبری طالبان و وضعیت کُلی امنیتی در کشور، بر بحران انسانی افزوده است.

طالبان در سطح بالا شکسته‌اند. حداقل پنج گروه مختلف – جناح حقانی، جناح برادر، جناح هوتکی‌ها یعقوب، آی‌ اس‌ آی پاکستان در حمایت هبت‌الله آخوندزاده و طالبان غیرپشتون که در شمال افغانستان فعالیت می‌کنند – هستند. همه برای نفوذ و قدرت با یک‌دیگر رقابت می‌کنند. با این همه اختلاف در داخل طالبان، هرگونه امید برای تشکیل یک دولت فراگیر با دیگر گروه‌های غیر طالب کم‌رنگ شده است.

وضعیت امنیتی به سختی بهتر است. تسلط طالبان باعث شد گروه‌های تروریستی مانند القاعده و داعش فعال شوند. داعش توانسته است از هرج و مرجی که در برخی از مناطق کشور پس از فروپاشی دولت افغانستان به وجود آمد، استفاده کند. حمله‌های تروریستی با تلفات جمعی، که اغلب با هدف اقلیت شیعه هزاره انجام می شود، یک ویژگی مشترک در افغانستان باقی‌مانده است.

القاعده هم‌چنین از تسلط طالبان در افغانستان سود می‌برد و بر اساس گزارش اخیر سازمان ملل، اعضای القاعده ظاهرأ در جنوب و شرق افغانستان باقی می‌مانند، جایی‌که این گروه‌ها حضور تاریخی دارند. القاعده قصد داشت در شمال افغانستان موقعیتی ایجاد کرده، جنگ‌جویان جدید را بسیج کند و ذخیره‌های خود را افزایش دهد. در این اواخر گفته می‌شد که رهبری القاعده ظاهراً نقش مشورتی با طالبان را ایفا می‌کند و این دو گروه با هم خیلی نزدیکی نشان می‌دادند تا این‌که ایمن‌الظواهری در قلب کابل و در منطقه دیپلماتیک مورد حمله هواپیمای بدون سرنشین امریکا قرار گرفت و کُشته شد.

از طرف دیگر این ترور ممکن است بر روی روابط امریکا و طالبان تأثیر بگذارد. حکومت طالبان مستقر در کابل، در ماه‌های گذشته تلاش داشت تا روابط خود را با واشنگتن دوستانه نگه دارد. ماه‌ها بود که از خط و نشان‌های تُند و تیز طالبان علیه امریکایی‌ها خبری نبود؛ اما ظاهرأ با حمله‌‌ی هواپیمای بدون سرنشین امریکا به خاک افغانستان، دوران ماه عسل این دو جناح در حال به پایان رسیدن است.

به هر صورت همه می‌دانیم که سلاح‌های افغانستان به بازارهای مختلف پاکستان به‌خصوص حتی در کشمیر رسیده است و از میان تمام کشورهای آسیای مرکزی، اُزبیکستان بیش‌ترین ارتباط را با طالبان داشته است. با این حال، مشخص نیست که تاشکند از این تعامل سود ملموسی دریافت کرده باشد. در واقع، وضعیت امنیتی در نزدیکی مرز افغانستان و اُزبیکستان رو به وخامت گذاشته است. اوایل ماه جاری، پنج موشک شلیک شده از افغانستان در شهر ترمز اُزبیکستان فرود آمد.

در همین حال، کشور همسایه تاجیکستان بیش‌ترین انتقاد را نسبت به طالبان داشته است. گمان می‌رود که طالبان به انصارالله، یک گروه افراطی تاجیک با هدف اعلام شده سرنگونی دولت تاجیکستان اجازه می‌دهد تا در مرز افغانستان با تاجیکستان گشت‌زنی کند. در ماه‌های اخیر، حضور نیروهای امنیتی تاجیکستان که در امتداد مرز با افغانستان بسیج شده‌اند، افزایش یافته است.

تاجیکستان به‌طور ضمنی از جبهه مقاومت ملی افغانستان حمایت کرده است. جبهه مقاومت در دره‌ی پنجشیر در پی تسلط طالبان ظهور کرد. جبهه مقاومت به رهبری احمد مسعود، پسر مرحوم احمد شاه مسعود قهرمان ملی، تنها نیروی مقاومت واقعی در برابر طالبان است.

پس از رهایی یافتن از حمله اولیه طالبان در پاییز گذشته و سپس زنده‌ماندن در ماه‌های زمستان در عمق دره‌های جانبی پنجشیر، جبهه مقاومت ملی از بهار و تابستان برای حمله به مواضع متعدد طالبان در ولایت‌های بغلان و پنجشیر استفاده کرد.

در تلافی، طالبان چند هفته پیش بزرگ‌ترین حمله خود را علیه جبهه مقاومت ملی آغاز کردند. ملا یعقوب، وزیر دفاع بالفعل و پسر ملا عمر، بنیان‌گذار طالبان، رهبری این عملیات را برعهده داشت. تاکنون این حمله نظامی شکست خورده است. هیچ پایگاه جبهه مقاومت ملی گرفته نشد. گفته می‌شود که تلفات طالبان زیاد بوده است. حتی یک چرخ‌بال طالبان نیز سرنگون شد.

اگرچه تنها نیروی معتبر در داخل افغانستان برای مبارزه با تروریسم بین‌المللی جبهه مقاومت ملی است؛ اما هیچ کاری از سوی ایالات متحده یا شرکای آن برای ایجاد رابطه با آن انجام نشده است. در واقع، هفته گذشته وزارت امور خارجه حتی تا آنجا پیش رفت که گفت: «ما از مخالفان خشونت‌آمیز سازمان‌یافته با طالبان حمایت نمی‌کنیم و سایر قدرت‌ها را نیز از انجام این کار منصرف می‌کنیم».

تصمیم جو بایدن، رییس‌جمهور ایالات متحده‌ی امریکا برای عقب‌نشینی و ترک شرکای افغان در سال گذشته لکه ننگی بر افتخار ملی امریکا بود. این اظهارات وزارت امور خارجه سیلی شرم‌آور دیگری به صورت افغان‌های شجاعی است که در برابر بربریت طالبان مقاومت می‌کنند. به هر حال، بسیاری از اعضای جبهه مقاومت همان جنگ‌جویان افغانستانی هستند که ایالات متحده برای دو دهه آن‌ها را آموزش داده و در کنار آن‌ها جنگیده است.

طالبان برای اداره افغانستان بسیار متفرق و ناتوان است. همان‌طور که وحشی‌گری طالبان ادامه دارد، افغان‌های بیش‌تری از گروه‌های مقاومت مانند جبهه مقاومت حمایت خواهند کرد. در همین حال، گروه‌های تروریستی مانند القاعده و داعش در تمام هرج و مرج منتظر بهترین زمان برای ضربه زدن خواهند بود. افغان‌ها به گرسنه‌گی ادامه خواهند داد و وضعیت بشری بدتر خواهد شد و هیچ برنامه‌ای از سوی جامعه بین‌المللی برای انجام کاری وجود ندارد.

اگر چیزی تغییر نکند، افغانستان بار دیگر وارد چرخه نسل دیگری از خشونت و رنج خواهد شد.

نتیجه‌گیری:

بعد از کشته‌شدن ایمن‌الظواهری در کابل و نقش گروه حقانی به‌خاطر حمایت این تروریست بین‌المللی، طالبان دو راه دارند. یا بدون قید و شرط تمام مواد تعهدشده مذاکرات دوحه را بپذیرند و یا هم به‌زور از صحنه سیاسی کنار زده شوند.

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